基于DCF模型的主要美股指数成分股内在价值
基于指数成分股DCF分析的加权平均内在价值 · 更新于 Apr 15, 2026
Dow Jones（DIA）的估算内在价值为$592，当前ETF价格为$485.54。上涨空间为+21.9%，表明该指数目前被低估。
该估值基于对30只成分股（共30只）的加权DCF（折现现金流）分析，覆盖指数权重的100.0%。每只成分股的内在价值采用20年DCF模型，结合分析师EPS增长预期和CAPM折现率计算。
方法：OCF=经营现金流，FCF=自由现金流，NI=净利润。数据仅供参考，非投资建议。
| # | Symbol | 权重 | 股价 | 内在价值 | 上涨空间 | 增长率 g1 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
GS
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
|
11.52% | $909.63 | $809 | -11.1% | 12.4% | 净利润 |
| 2 |
CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
|
10.03% | $794.25 | $872 | +9.7% | 17.7% | 经营现金流 |
| 3 |
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
|
4.76% | $393.11 | $912 | +131.9% | 17.9% | 经营现金流 |
| 4 |
AMGN
Amgen Inc.
|
4.53% | $350.95 | $457 | +30.3% | 9.7% | 经营现金流 |
| 5 |
HD
The Home Depot, Inc.
|
4.33% | $342.71 | $248 | -27.7% | 6.3% | 经营现金流 |
| 6 |
SHW
The Sherwin-Williams Company
|
4.28% | $333.60 | $298 | -10.6% | 11.4% | 经营现金流 |
| 7 |
AXP
American Express Company
|
4.05% | $326.96 | $271 | -17.2% | 32.5% | 净利润 |
| 8 |
JPM
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
|
3.96% | $311.12 | $367 | +18.0% | 15.4% | 净利润 |
| 9 |
MCD
McDonald's Corporation
|
3.95% | $303.22 | $317 | +4.5% | 8.2% | 经营现金流 |
| 10 |
V
Visa Inc.
|
3.93% | $311.37 | $183 | -41.2% | 44.6% | 净利润 |
| 11 |
UNH
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
|
3.91% | $314.19 | $902 | +187.2% | 17.3% | 自由现金流 |
| 12 |
TRV
The Travelers Companies, Inc.
|
3.86% | $299.59 | $553 | +84.6% | 15.0% | 净利润 |
| 13 |
AAPL
Apple Inc.
|
3.32% | $258.83 | $235 | -9.3% | 10.6% | 经营现金流 |
| 14 |
JNJ
Johnson & Johnson
|
3.08% | $240.10 | $268 | +11.6% | 8.8% | 经营现金流 |
| 15 |
IBM
International Business Machines Corporation
|
3.02% | $240.27 | $205 | -14.7% | 3.8% | 经营现金流 |
| 16 |
HON
Honeywell International Inc.
|
3.01% | $233.24 | $278 | +19.0% | 12.5% | 经营现金流 |
| 17 |
AMZN
Amazon.com, Inc.
|
2.98% | $248.97 | $286 | +15.0% | 18.5% | 净利润 |
| 18 |
BA
The Boeing Company
|
2.81% | $223.77 | $280 | +25.1% | 43.0% | 经营现金流 |
| 19 |
CVX
Chevron Corporation
|
2.43% | $186.98 | $301 | +60.8% | 12.8% | 自由现金流 |
| 20 |
NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation
|
2.34% | $196.46 | $188 | -4.1% | 21.0% | 经营现金流 |
| 21 |
CRM
Salesforce, Inc.
|
2.18% | $171.31 | $416 | +143.0% | 22.2% | 净利润 |
| 22 |
MMM
3M Company
|
1.92% | $152.55 | $107 | -29.9% | 12.2% | 经营现金流 |
| 23 |
PG
The Procter & Gamble Company
|
1.87% | $144.40 | $156 | +8.3% | 5.3% | 经营现金流 |
| 24 |
WMT
Walmart Inc.
|
1.65% | $125.05 | $41.0 | -67.2% | 8.6% | 自由现金流 |
| 25 |
MRK
Merck & Co., Inc.
|
1.56% | $119.96 | $188 | +56.5% | 10.2% | 经营现金流 |
| 26 |
DIS
The Walt Disney Company
|
1.27% | $102.60 | $154 | +50.0% | 8.5% | 经营现金流 |
| 27 |
CSCO
Cisco Systems, Inc.
|
1.06% | $82.61 | $160 | +93.4% | 18.4% | 经营现金流 |
| 28 |
KO
The Coca-Cola Company
|
1.00% | $75.90 | $37.7 | -50.3% | 6.5% | 经营现金流 |
| 29 |
VZ
Verizon Communications Inc.
|
0.60% | $45.48 | $99.9 | +119.6% | 9.9% | 自由现金流 |
| 30 |
NKE
NIKE, Inc.
|
0.56% | $44.20 | $41.8 | -5.5% | 17.6% | 经营现金流 |
