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DCF-basierter fairer Wert für die wichtigsten US-Index-Komponenten

Dow Jones (DIA)

Gewichteter Durchschnitt des inneren Werts basierend auf DCF-Analyse der Indexkomponenten  · Aktualisiert Apr 15, 2026

ETF-Kurs
$485.54
+0.71% heute
ETF Fairer Wert
$592
30 Aktien analysiert
Aufwärtspotenzial
+21.9%
unterbewertet
Abdeckung
100.0%
des Indexgewichts
Aktueller ETF-Kurs: $485.54 ETF Fairer Wert (DCF): $592
$413 ← 21.9% Aufwärtspotenzial → $639
Der ETF-Fairer-Wert ergibt sich aus der DCF-Analyse von 30 Komponenten, die DIA% des Gesamtgewichts von 100.0 abdecken.
Formel
$$\text{ETF Fair Value} = P_{\text{ETF}} \times \underbrace{\frac{\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{n} w_i \cdot \dfrac{\widehat{IV}_i}{P_i}}{\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{n} w_i}}_{\text{weighted avg IV/P ratio}}$$
\(P_{\text{ETF}}\)  —  aktueller ETF-Kurs ($485.54)
\(w_i\)  —  Indexgewicht der Komponente i \(i\) (summing to \(\approx100.0\))
\(\widehat{IV}_i\)  —  DCF-innerer Wert der Komponente i \(i\)
\(P_i\)  —  aktueller Kurs der Komponente i \(i\)
\(n = 30\)  —  Komponenten mit ausreichenden Finanzdaten
$$\text{DIA Fair Value} = 485.54 \times 1.2190 \approx \$591.89$$

The estimated intrinsic value of Dow Jones (DIA) is $592, compared to the current ETF price of $485.54. This represents a +21.9% upside, suggesting the index is currently unterbewertet.

This valuation is based on a weighted DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) analysis of 30 component stocks out of 30 total holdings, covering 100.0% of the index weight. Each component's intrinsic value is calculated using a 20-year DCF model with analyst EPS growth estimates and CAPM-derived discount rates.

Methods: OCF = Operating Cash Flow, FCF = Free Cash Flow, NI = Net Income. Data for informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

Bestandteile — Innerer Wert je Komponente

# Symbol Gewicht Kurs Innerer Wert Potenzial Wachstum g1 Methode
1
GS
GS
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
11.52% $909.63 $809 -11.1% 12.4% Nettogewinn
2
CAT
CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
10.03% $794.25 $872 +9.7% 17.7% Operativer Cashflow
3
MSFT
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
4.76% $393.11 $912 +131.9% 17.9% Operativer Cashflow
4
AMGN
AMGN
Amgen Inc.
4.53% $350.95 $457 +30.3% 9.7% Operativer Cashflow
5
HD
HD
The Home Depot, Inc.
4.33% $342.71 $248 -27.7% 6.3% Operativer Cashflow
6
SHW
SHW
The Sherwin-Williams Company
4.28% $333.60 $298 -10.6% 11.4% Operativer Cashflow
7
AXP
AXP
American Express Company
4.05% $326.96 $271 -17.2% 32.5% Nettogewinn
8
JPM
JPM
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
3.96% $311.12 $367 +18.0% 15.4% Nettogewinn
9
MCD
MCD
McDonald's Corporation
3.95% $303.22 $317 +4.5% 8.2% Operativer Cashflow
10
V
V
Visa Inc.
3.93% $311.37 $183 -41.2% 44.6% Nettogewinn
11
UNH
UNH
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
3.91% $314.19 $902 +187.2% 17.3% Freier Cashflow
12
TRV
TRV
The Travelers Companies, Inc.
3.86% $299.59 $553 +84.6% 15.0% Nettogewinn
13
AAPL
AAPL
Apple Inc.
3.32% $258.83 $235 -9.3% 10.6% Operativer Cashflow
14
JNJ
JNJ
Johnson & Johnson
3.08% $240.10 $268 +11.6% 8.8% Operativer Cashflow
15
IBM
IBM
International Business Machines Corporation
3.02% $240.27 $205 -14.7% 3.8% Operativer Cashflow
16
HON
HON
Honeywell International Inc.
3.01% $233.24 $278 +19.0% 12.5% Operativer Cashflow
17
AMZN
AMZN
Amazon.com, Inc.
2.98% $248.97 $286 +15.0% 18.5% Nettogewinn
18
BA
BA
The Boeing Company
2.81% $223.77 $280 +25.1% 43.0% Operativer Cashflow
19
CVX
CVX
Chevron Corporation
2.43% $186.98 $301 +60.8% 12.8% Freier Cashflow
20
NVDA
NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation
2.34% $196.46 $188 -4.1% 21.0% Operativer Cashflow
21
CRM
CRM
Salesforce, Inc.
2.18% $171.31 $416 +143.0% 22.2% Nettogewinn
22
MMM
MMM
3M Company
1.92% $152.55 $107 -29.9% 12.2% Operativer Cashflow
23
PG
PG
The Procter & Gamble Company
1.87% $144.40 $156 +8.3% 5.3% Operativer Cashflow
24
WMT
WMT
Walmart Inc.
1.65% $125.05 $41.0 -67.2% 8.6% Freier Cashflow
25
MRK
MRK
Merck & Co., Inc.
1.56% $119.96 $188 +56.5% 10.2% Operativer Cashflow
26
DIS
DIS
The Walt Disney Company
1.27% $102.60 $154 +50.0% 8.5% Operativer Cashflow
27
CSCO
CSCO
Cisco Systems, Inc.
1.06% $82.61 $160 +93.4% 18.4% Operativer Cashflow
28
KO
KO
The Coca-Cola Company
1.00% $75.90 $37.7 -50.3% 6.5% Operativer Cashflow
29
VZ
VZ
Verizon Communications Inc.
0.60% $45.48 $99.9 +119.6% 9.9% Freier Cashflow
30
NKE
NKE
NIKE, Inc.
0.56% $44.20 $41.8 -5.5% 17.6% Operativer Cashflow
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