The estimated intrinsic value of Orchid Island Capital, Inc. (ORC) using a Price-to-Funds From Operations (P/FFO) model is $11.02 (based on the recommended P/FFO method), compared to the current stock price of $7.30. This suggests the stock may be undervalued by 51.0% relative to its intrinsic value.

For Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), standard DCF models can be misleading because depreciation — a large non-cash charge — distorts net income. Instead, SharesGrow uses a Price-to-FFO (Funds From Operations) model: Intrinsic Value = FFO Per Share × 17 (sector-average P/FFO multiple). FFO adds back depreciation to net income, providing a more accurate picture of a REIT's recurring cash-generating ability — the industry-standard metric for REIT valuation.

The valuation uses a CAPM-derived discount rate of 7.73% (CAPM-derived from beta of 1.63). For comparison, the standard 20-year DCF model produces: Operating Cash Flow (OCF): $26.54 | Free Cash Flow (FCF): $26.54 | Net Income (NI): $31.59.

• Net Income (NI) exceeds Operating Cash Flow (OCF). This company reports higher accounting profit than actual cash generated. Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model uses Operating Cash Flow (OCF), which is more conservative. Analysts may weigh reported earnings more heavily. This gap can occur when a company has large non-cash gains, deferred revenue recognition, or working capital timing differences.
• High debt relative to cash flow. Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model deducts net debt from the present value of future cash flows, which significantly reduces equity value per share. Analyst price targets typically do not subtract debt in the same way.