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Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. NGVC NYSE

NYSE • Consumer Defensive • Grocery Stores • US • USD

SharesGrow Score
61/100
3/7 Pass
SharesGrow Intrinsic Value
$19.15
-27.7%
Analyst Price Target
$54.00
+103.8%

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (NGVC) is a Grocery Stores company in the Consumer Defensive sector, currently trading at $26.50. It has a SharesGrow Score of 61/100, indicating a above average investment profile with 3 out of 7 criteria passed.

SharesGrow calculates the intrinsic value of NGVC = $19.15 (-27.7% from the current price, the stock appears overvalued). Analyst consensus target is NGVC = $54 (+103.8% upside).

Valuation: NGVC trades at a trailing Price-to-Earnings (P/E) of 12.7 (S&P 500 average ~25) with a forward Price/Earnings-to-Growth (PEG) of 2.22.

Financials: revenue is $1.3B, +6.9%/yr average growth. Net income is $46M, growing at +30.6%/yr. Net profit margin is 3.5% (thin). Gross margin is 29.9% (+1.9 pp trend).

Balance sheet: total debt is $332M against $212M equity (Debt-to-Equity (D/E) ratio 1.56, leveraged). Current ratio is 1.06 (adequate). Debt-to-assets is 49.5%. Total assets: $671M.

Analyst outlook: 9 / 16 analysts rate NGVC as buy (56%) — moderate consensus.

SharesGrow 7-Criteria breakdown: Value 56/100 (Partial), Growth 83/100 (Pass), Past 100/100 (Pass), Health 50/100 (Partial), Moat 43/100 (Fail), Future 64/100 (Pass), Income 30/100 (Fail).

$54.00
▲ 103.77% Upside
Average Price Target
The 12-month price target for Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. is $54.00.

NGVC SharesGrow Score Overview

61/100
SharesGrow Score
Above average fundamentals
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VALUE 56/100
Valuation — P/E, PEG, Forward PEG
GROWTH 83/100
Financials — average growth
PAST 100/100
strong — trend
HEALTH 50/100
Balance sheet — Debt-to-Equity (D/E) ratio, Current ratio is
MOAT 43/100
Gross margin is + market cap
FUTURE 64/100
Analyst outlook — as buy
INCOME 30/100
Net profit margin is
Scores derived from financial statements, analyst ratings, and balance sheet data.

Score Breakdown — NGVC

~
VALUE Partial
56/100
NGVC trades at a trailing Price-to-Earnings (P/E) of 12.7 (S&P 500 average ~25). Forward PEG 2.22 — overvalued. Trailing PEG 4.26. Analyst consensus target is $54, implying +103.8% from the current price $27. Composite: Price-to-Earnings (20%) + Forward Price/Earnings-to-Growth (35%) + upside (25%) + trailing PEG (20%). ≥ 60 = Pass.
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GROWTH Pass
83/100
NGVC: +6.9%/yr revenue is, +30.6%/yr Net income is average growth. > 5%/yr — strong. Score: >20%/yr = 100, >10% = 80, >5% = 65, >0% = 45, < 0 = 15.
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PAST Pass
100/100
NGVC: 4 / 4 years profitable. strong — 100%. Score = 4 / 4 × 100. ≥ 80 = Pass.
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~
HEALTH Partial
50/100
Balance sheet NGVC: Debt-to-Equity (D/E) ratio 1.56 (leveraged), Current ratio is 1.06 (adequate). Debt-to-Equity < 0.5, Current Ratio > 1.5, Interest Coverage > 8x = ideal. ≥ 70 = Pass.
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MOAT Fail
43/100
NGVC: Gross margin is 29.9% (+1.9 pp trend), N/A market cap. Moat (0-100): margin (35%) + trend (15%) + market cap (30%) + revenue is (20%). Score 43/100. ≥ 70 = Pass.
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FUTURE Pass
64/100
Analyst outlook: 9 / 16 analysts rate NGVC as buy (56%). Analyst consensus target is $54 (+103.8% upside). Score: 60% buy consensus + 40% upside. ≥ 60 = Pass.
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INCOME Fail
30/100
NGVC: Net profit margin is 3.5%. thin (0-5%). Score: ≥30% = 100, ≥20% = 85, ≥15% = 70, ≥10% = 55, ≥5% = 45, ≥0% = 30, < 0 = 10.
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Stock Chart & Stats

Market Data
52-Week Range23.47-61.22
Volume141.24K
Avg Volume (30D)175.74K
Market Cap$610.38M
Beta (1Y)1.26
Dividend Yield$0.5400
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.02
Shares Outstanding$22.94M
IPO Date2012-07-25
Employees3,332
CEOKemper Isely
Financial Highlights & Ratios
Revenue (TTM)$1.33B
Gross Profit$397.88M
EBITDA$93.8M
Net Income$46.44M
Operating Income$61.99M
Total Cash$17.12M
Total Debt$332.02M
Net Debt$314.9M
Total Assets$670.5M
Price / Earnings (P/E)13.1
Price / Sales (P/S)0.46
Analyst Forecast
1Y Price Target$54.00
Target High$54.00
Target Low$54.00
Upside+103.8%
Rating ConsensusBuy
Analysts Covering16
Buy 56% Hold 44% Sell 0%
Price Target Summary
Company Info
CountryUS
ExchangeNYSE
CurrencyUSD
ISINUS63888U1088

Price Chart

NGVC
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc.  ·  NYSE
Consumer Defensive • Grocery Stores
23.47 52WK RANGE 61.22
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